A Look At Seismic Activity Leading Up To 2010 Deepwater Horizon Event
08/23/2016
Abstract
Oil rig explosions bring with them tremendous environmental catastrophes, yet they are largely unpredictable events. Using LIGO Livingston seismological data, it could be possible to track seismic events leading up to oil rig explosions as a way of creating a model to better predict when and where these explosions will take place. Our group used data from LIGO with the least signal noise to track local seismic events easily, finding that various oil rig explosions were preceded by a comparatively large, local seismic event. This correlation seems to be worth further study with more oil rig explosions, and with the addition of specific seismic activity locations, could be used to develop such a model.
Introduction
On 20 April 2010 at 9:49 pm CDT, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig experienced a natural gas explosion, leading to the rig’s eventual sinking and a rupture in the exploratory system it carried. This rupture allowed oil and natural gas to freely discharge into the Gulf of Mexico, with an estimated peak escape rate of 60,000 barrels per day. By tracking seismic data collected from the LIGO Livingston, it could be possible to create a timeline of events leading up to this explosion. The ability to study the events leading up to this disaster could have use in identifying similar seismic conditions and preventing future catastrophes.
Procedures
In order to create a timeline of events, we pulled portions of seismological data using all available frequency bands from LIGO to compare natural events and signal noise. The available data showed the quietest signals on the 0.3-1 Hz frequency band, with only small, local seismic events being detected there. Using this band to map the week of the event, from 17 April to 23 April 2010, we created a view of the events leading up to and just after the Deepwater Horizon explosion (Figure 1). From here we narrowed the view to the time of the explosion itself (Figure 2) to pinpoint any seismic events being recorded that matched the recorded information about the accident.
Looking now for events leading up to the explosion, we widened the timeframe to 12 hours before the explosion occurred. Noticing an event in that window that could be reasonably considered in relation to the Deepwater Horizon explosion, we looked for similar seismic activity about 12 hours prior to other oil rig explosions.
Results
Based on the timeframes that we studied, we did find a correlation between seismic activity and the Deepwater Horizon event. About 10 hours before the natural gas surge occurred that damaged the rig, there was a comparatively large seismic event (Figure 3), which is plausibly-related to that natural gas surge. This conclusion is supported by data related to similar oil rig explosions, each with a similar seismic event occurring 10-14 hours prior to the actual event on the rig (Figures 4 and 5).
Figures
Figure 1. 17 April to 23 April seismic events recorded on the 0.3-1 Hz band.
Figure 2. Seismic event matching the recorded time of the Deepwater Horizon explosion.
Figure 3. A seismic event occurs 10 hours before Deepwater Horizon's reported gas surge.
Figure 4. Similar bump in seismic data occurring 12.5 hours prior to Fieldwood Energy rig explosion.
Figure 5. Another bump 14 hours before Pemex rig explosion.
Discussion and Conclusions
By creating a timeline of seismic events leading up to oil rig explosions, we can look for patterns in the catastrophes and use these to better predict future explosions, and take necessary steps to prevent them. Our results show us that there is a pattern of oil rig explosions being preceded by a larger seismic event by about 12 hours. If this type of event is responsible for starting or exacerbating the chain of events resulting in an oil rig explosion, the next logical step in preventing future accidents is to create a model that ties together all of these events and predicts which rig will actually be affected.
Bibliography
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ABC News. (2014, November 20). 1 Killed, 3 Injured in Oil Rig Explosion in Gulf of Mexico. Retrieved August 23, 2016, from http://abcnews.go.com/US/killed-injured-oil-rig-explosion-gulf-mexico/story?id=27069980
Mohney, G. (2015, April 1). Oil Rig Explosion Kills 4 in Gulf of Mexico, No Spill Reported. Retrieved August 23, 2016, from http://abcnews.go.com/International/oil-rig-explosion-kills-gulf-mexico-spill-reported/story?id=30052063